Early Activity in the Tropics this Year

Although the Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1, there are some signs of some tropical activity near the Bahamas this weekend. This map shows the tropical weather outlook for the next 5 days, and the area in red has a 70% chance of a cyclone formation in the next 5 days.

5 day tropical weather outlook (NWS NHC)

Here's the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) forecast discussion on the potential for a storm:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential 
for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the Bahamas.

1. 1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop late this 
week or early this weekend a couple of hundred miles north of 
the Bahamas. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual 
development of this system, and a subtropical depression or storm 
is likely to form this weekend while it moves northeastward over 
the western Atlantic. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on 
this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Wednesday, or earlier, if 
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

Hurricane forecasters are tracking the potential for a subtropical depression to form near the Bahamas.

We can see the area of low pressure near Florida on the map below, and that's the area to watch.
GFS Model for Saturday evening (Tropical Tidbits)

If this does end up becoming a tropical storm, it will be the first one of the year and it'll be called Arthur.