Mt. Mansfield Snow Stake and Lake Champlain Water Temperature

I see the end of May as the big transitional period between spring and summer. Mud season ends and the Green Mountains begin to show their namesake color. Activities shift from skiing or white water rafting to boating and hiking as the trails dry up. And Vermont sees a new influx of tourists that want to enjoy the cooler air of the North Country. Tomorrow, June 1, is the official start of meteorological summer, so that transition is certainly taking place.

And with that in mind, I'd like to take one final look at the Mt. Mansfield Snow Stake and look at the Lake Champlain water temperature.

Mt. Mansfield snow depth graph taken 5/31 (SkiVT-L)

For the Mt. Mansfield snow depth, we currently sit at 3 inches, which is just about average for the last day in May. Notice that the snow depth plummeted over the past week with the incredibly warm temperatures we saw. (Mt. Mansfield had an all-time record high temperature of 85 °F on May 27). Overall, this year was a fairly average year for snow depth, with a peak above the normal maximum in late February and then a resurgence in snow depth in April.

As for the boating activities in Vermont, things are looking much better this week than they were one week ago. After a chilly spring, the Lake Champlain water temperature sat at around 48 °F last weekend.

Lake Champlain water temperature graph (USGS)

However, the impressive warmth in Northern New England caused the water temperature to rise 12 °F to about 60 °F, much more comfortable for activities in the lake, though still chilly.

Enjoy the start to summer!

Dew Points Dropping

Happy Saturday! The air is still quite humid and muggy right now, but that all is set to change as we progress through today. Here is a current look at dew points throughout the Northeast:

8 a.m.  dew points on the HRRR (Tropical Tidbits)

Notice that sharp contrast between the oranges and yellows on the map and that green section. The "green" is much drier and more comfortable air that is set to move eastward later today. And here are forecasted dew points at 4 p.m. eastern time, with that "green" section of the map having moved into our region.

NAM 4 p.m. dew point today (Tropical Tidbits)

The air will be much drier and less muggy this afternoon, and that nicer feeling will continue into the start of the work week. By 2 a.m. on Monday, the NAM shows much more refreshing air having moved into our region.

NAM 2 a.m. dew point today (Tropical Tidbits)

Those dew points in the 20s and 30s represent extremely comfortable, dry air that is more reminiscent of what we see in the summer, not in June. So after this morning, more comfortable air is on the way!

Dew Point vs. Relative Humidity

If you've been outside today you've probably thought to yourself: Wow! It's humid out! That is quite true, as dew points throughout the region are in the upper 60s.

Here is a 1:00 p.m. eastern time look at dew points throughout the country. Notice that the entire eastern seaboard is experiencing dew points in the 60s or 70s, making the air feel muggy and oppressive.

1:00 p.m. EST dew points (Mesonet)

One commonly misunderstood meteorological concept that I frequently hear is the difference between dew point and relative humidity. 

The dew point is the temperature to which air must be cooled to be saturated with water vapor. In other words, at the dew point, the air cannot hold any more water vapor, so it will release it as rain or snow. Generally speaking, the higher the dew point is, the more "humid" it feels. Essentially, the dew point is a measure of humidity.

Relative humidity, on the other hand is the percentage for humidity that you will see on the Apple iPhone weather app. Put simply, relative humidity is the fraction relating the current humidity in the air (the numerator) to how much there could be (the denominator). If the dew point is 65 °F and the temperature is also 65 °F, then you will have a relative humidity of 100%, and it will likely be raining.

This is one of the main reasons that I find relative humidity misleading. Say the dew point is 65 °F, which would fall in that muggy to oppressive category. And if the temperature is 90 °F, you'd have a relative humidity of around 45%, which does not sound crazy high. However, given this temperature and dew point combination, it will certainly feel oppressive out. This is the reason that I find the dew point to be the best measure of humidity and what we should report (not relative humidity as the Apple iPhone app does).

Top 5 Weather Events in History for Me

On this rainy day, I thought I'd take a look back about some of my favorite weather events in history! (These are not in any particular order).

1. The 2011 Halloween nor'easter. In late October 2011, a nor'easter dropped up to 2 feet of snow in areas of CT, with Peru, Ma. receiving 32 inches of snow. This storm came less than 2 months after Hurricane Irene, and Halloween was cancelled in many places. I remember loosing power and school being canceled for a week! This was an incredible early-season snowfall.

2. The February 2013 blizzard. Around February 8, 2013, a multi-day blizzard struck the northeastern United States, dropping a maximum of 40 inches of snow in Hamden, CT. Here are snow totals from this storm.

February 2013 Blizzard snow totals (Brandon Vincent)

Notice how strong this storm was in southern New England. I remember skiing afterwards, and it was incredible!

3. Hurricane Irene. In late August 2011 this powerful hurricane struck eastern parts of the country causing crippling damage and many deaths. While a very tragic storm, for me it was exciting and interesting to see the sheer power of the weather.

4. Hurricane Sandy. Another absolutely tragic and crippling Atlantic hurricane in 2012. This one struck in late October, and I remember losing power and being out of school for a week. Peak wind speeds for this storm were 115 mph and the pressure dropped to 940 mbar.

Hurricane Sandy (Wikipedia)

5. MLK Snowstorm. This one was during my sophomore year at Middlebury college (winter 2019), and it began on the day before MLK day and continued into the holiday. While totals were not anything outrageous (they were around 2 feet), the most impressive part of the storm was the intense winds and bitter cold that came along with it.

Those are my five favorite weather events that I've experienced - clearly they are very snow-centric. Comment some events that you remember particularly well!

HOT

The big story for today is the heat.

BTV records for May 27 (NWS)

The above image shows some daily records for BTV for May 27, and we've broken a bunch today. First, the low temperature overnight last night was 72 °F, which is a record for the warmest low temperature for the month of May in history. (This assumes that we don't drop below 72 °F before midnight tonight - which I think we won't do).

As of 2:54 p.m. eastern time today, BTV officially recorded a temperature of 94 °F, which is a new record high for May 27 and for the month of May entirely.

BTV observations on 5/27 (NWS)

Of course, when temperatures and humidity get this high, there is often a significant risk for convection and the atmosphere is often unstable. Thus, we are seeing some thunderstorms in VT right now. Here is a 3:37 p.m. look at radar, showing some storms with hail near Rutland.

3:37 p.m. eastern time radar (RadarScope)

Be safe out there, and be sure to hydrate and take necessary precautions. Shade, lots of water, and pools or lakes can be extremely helpful on days like these.


Update at 5:24 p.m.: We have now hit 95 °F in Burlington.

The Ocean Effect

I find today's weather particularly interesting because it shows the immense power of bodies of water like oceans or lakes.

Here is a look at forecasted temperatures for 2 p.m. today from the National Weather Service (NWS).

NWS forecasted temps for 2 p.m. (NWS) 

And here are current temperatures throughout the Northeast from Weather Undergrounds Wundermap (I am writing at 1:20 p.m. eastern time).

1:20 p.m. temperatures (Weather Underground)

Notice that in both of these temperature maps, inland areas are (and forecasted to be) much warmer than areas along the coast like Maine, Long Island, and Nantucket. Although one would think that areas at a higher latitude in the northern hemisphere would typically have cooler temperatures, we see the ocean effect at play here.

The equation relating heat energy (Q) and temperature change (△T) is Q = m*c*△T, where m is the mass of the substance of interest and c is that substance's specific heat. Water has a relatively high value for c, meaning that it requires lots of energy Q to change T by a small a small amount.

What does this mean for the weather that we see today? Well inland, temperatures are much warmer. This is because there is no body of water limiting the temperature increase for inland areas. In other words, Q is low for these inland areas. It hasn't required much energy to warm these inland areas today. On the flip side, near the ocean, lots of energy is required to warm the land because m and c are both large. Therefore, lots of energy (Q) is required to warm the temperature a small amount, and we are seeing cooler temps near the ocean today.

In the winter time, the ocean effect has the opposite effect, causing interior areas to generally be cooler, while spots along the coast remain more temperate. 

The ocean effect is particularly evident in California, where a place like Santa Monica on the Pacific ocean can be 75 °F, while temperatures in Pomona (about 40 miles east of Santa Monica) can be near 100 °F.

Some Abbreviations I Use

First of all, Happy Memorial Day to all! Take some time to think of those that have given the ultimate sacrifice for America.

For today's post, I wanted to share some abbreviations that I frequently use on this blog, so you all have a better idea of what I talk about when I get a little too technical in my writing.

1. NAM - The North American Mesoscale Model. This short term weather forecasting model is run by the National Centers for Environmental Protection (NCEP) for North America. I like to take a look at this one when making forecasts for within 3 days.
2. GFS - The Global Forecast System Model. A weather computer model that runs out to 384 hours (16 days). This one is run by the National Weather Service.
3. HRRR - High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model. This computer model runs and refreshes quite frequently for very short term weather forecasts. This one is also run by NCEP and only forecasts out to 18 hours, but it does so for small areas of the country.
4. EURO - The European long term weather forecasting model. This one is similar to the GFS, except it is run by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in Reading, UK.
5. NWS - The National Weather Service. The American governmental organization that is responsible for all things weather forecasting/ safety/ etc. in our country. The NWS is responsible for issuing Winter Storm Warnings, Tornado watches, etc.
6. CPC - The Climate Prediction Center. A subset of the NWS that makes long term climate predictions. I like to take a look at CPC models to see how temperatures will trend.

That's it for some of the abbreviations that I use frequently. If I can think of any more, I'll be sure to do another post of this sort.

Hot Week Ahead

The theme for this coming week is heat.

NAM 2-m temperatures for tomorrow mid-day (Tropical Tidbits)

The above image shows temperatures for 11 a.m. tomorrow from the NAM, where we sit in the upper 50s for much of the region and low 50s for eastern parts of New England. But notice that area of dark red in Iowa, Michigan, and Kentucky. That area of heat looks to move east as we head into the work week, bringing with it some above average temperatures.

NAM 2-m temperatures for Wed. afternoon (Tropical Tidbits)

We can see on the map for Wednesday afternoon, the red has moved into our region, bringing some temperatures that'll reach the 80s. I think the NAM may even be underdone and we could even see temperatures that reach 90 °F in spots, particularly in interior New England.

Although the air temperature will be high, we'll be feeling our first truly humid conditions of the season, making it feel muggy.

NAM 2-m dew points for Wed. afternoon (Tropical Tidbits)

For Wednesday, we'll see dew points that reach the 70s in spots, which can be classified as oppressive. The dew point is essentially a measure of air humidity. It is the temperature that air must be cooled to to become saturated with water vapor. Here's a dew point scale explaining how conditions will feel given different dew points.

Dew Point scale (COPD Foundation)

For mid-week, will be in that uncomfortable to oppressive category in spots. And lastly, here's the CFS climate model showing temperature anomalies at 500 mb in the atmosphere (the mid level of the atmosphere) for this week.

CFS for this week (Tropical Tidbits)

That reddish-purple that you see means it'll be hot! Enjoy your holiday weekend, and I'll have more on the possibility of severe weather during the week.

Saturday Soaker

For those of you in southern New England, today had certainly been a very wet day with showers on an off that have been heavy at times. Here's a view over I-84 that I took this morning, before the rain moved in at around 10 a.m.

Middlebury, CT this morning

Here is a look at rainfall totals from different weather stations on Weather Underground from today.

Rainfall totals today (Wunderground)

Some areas look to not be not reporting, but we can clearly see how southern areas have been favored for rain today. The rain tapers off as we head into the evening hours, and we have some beautiful summer like weather for the rest of the holiday weekend. As we enter the next work week, we start to see our first truly humid weather of the summer. I'll have more on that in another post soon! Enjoy the rest of your rainy Saturday.

Rainy Saturday

The spectacular stretch of weather that we've had this week looks to end overnight, and we have a rainy day in store for tomorrow.

Rain looks to enter southern New England at around 8 a.m. tomorrow morning, with isolated showers in Connecticut.

8 a.m. Eastern Time NAM (Tropical Tidbits)

The rain sticks around for the afternoon, and it looks to be more widespread and heavy in spots.

4 p.m. Eastern Time NAM (Tropical Tidbits)

Through Sunday afternoon, the NAM shows the greatest accumulated precipitations in southwest Connecticut and parts of southern New York. Some areas can expect multiple inches of rain this weekend.

NAM total accumulated precipitation (Tropical Tidbits)

While tomorrow will be a little cooler and more rainy, (especially in southern New England) we clear out for Sunday and the rest of the holiday weekend, and we look ahead to a fantastic weather week next week with warm, summer-like temperatures.

Active Hurricane Season Ahead

Arthur this past weekend was our first named tropical storm, and it looks like we'll have many more this summer.

NOAA just released their Atlantic hurricane outlook for this summer is predicting an above normal season.

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook (NOAA)

NOAA has predicted a 60% chance of an above normal season, with 13-16 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-6 major hurricanes. Named storms have winds 39 mph or higher, hurricanes have winds 74 mph or higher, and major hurricanes have winds 111 mph or higher. 

This comes on the heals of last years season, which had 18 storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, with the strongest one being Dorian at the end of the summer. We've had above average seasons since 2016 and it looks like that trend will continue into this summer.

Here are the names for this summer's tropical cyclones:

2020 Atlantic tropical cyclone names (NOAA)

And here is the link to the full NOAA report:

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/busy-atlantic-hurricane-season-predicted-for-2020

It'll be crucial to take necessary precautions during severe weather, and I'll keep updated on activity in the tropics throughout the summer.

Few tidbits

Meteorologists often don't like quiet stretches of weather since there's not to much to talk about. So this post will contain a hodgepodge of items.

1) We'll start with yesterday's high and low temperatures in the U.S.

5/19 high and low (NWS WPC)

Texas is quite warm right now, and Rio Grande Village reached 113 °F yesterday, while the temperature dipped to 23 °F in the border town of Estcourt Station, Maine.

2) Here's a look at what time the sun is rising and setting right now:

Burlington, VT

Sunrise: 5:19 AM

Sunset: 8:20 PM

Hartford, CT

Sunrise: 5:25 AM

Sunset: 8:09 PM

Fairbanks, AK

Sunrise: 4:05 AM

Sunset: 11:29 PM

3) Mt. Mansfield snow stake.

The Mt. Mansfield snow stake is currently measuring a snow depth of 48 inches, when average for May 20 is just over 16 inches. So the snow is holding on strong right now!

Mt. Mansfield snow depth (SkiVt-L)

Let's hope for some activity in the atmosphere so there's some more interesting stuff to talk about!

Quiet Week

It'll be a nice, tranquil week of weather this week, with sunny skies and high pressure dominating, as the action remains to our south. Here's a GIF of the GFS model from today through Sunday afternoon/evening, showing consistent high pressure dominance, and clear weather for us. The next threat for any rain won't be until around Sunday.

GFS from today to Sunday (Tropical Tidbits)

Temperatures will also be fantastic, rising into the upper sixties or 70s each day, and then dipping down into the 40s all night.

GFS 2m temperatures until Sunday (Tropical Tidbits)

Enjoy this pleasant stretch of weather!

Ski Season 2019-2020

Something that I love about skiing is how weather-dependent it is and how it gets you outside during what would typically be a grim, cold, and dark time. My love of skiing actually sparked my passion for weather because I would always follow the weather when I was younger, awaiting the next snow and better ski conditions.

One of the biggest perks of being a Middlebury College student is the incredible access to skiing close to campus. This season, I did lots of skiing at the Middlebury College Snow Bowl and Sugarbush Resort, with a little bit at Mad River Glenn as well. I had some fantastic ski days this year, but the season was unfortunately cut short due to the pandemic.

Lets take a look at reported seasonal snowfall totals for areas in VT for 2019-2020:

Jay Peak: 264"
Mad River Glenn: 228"
Smugglers' Notch: 227"
Sugarbush: 209"
Killington: 172"
Stratton: 100"

Although I'm not certain, I believe these numbers are pre-mountain closures, so they likely would've been higher with a few more weeks of operation. As tends to be the case, northern areas were favored for snowfall this winter.

Highlights of the winter included the Feb. 7 snowstorm, when areas saw up to two feet of snow. While it was a powder-filled winter, we had the usual January thaw with rain, which wiped out a considerable amount of snow for the second week of January. And of course, the season was cut short due to COVID-19. To wrap up, here are some photos from my season:

January 30, Middlebury Snow Bowl (Van Barth)

January 2, Ski Butternut

February 22, Middlebury Snow Bowl

January 31, Middlebury Snow Bowl

February 21, Mad River Glenn (Notice Mt. Washington in the background)

Looking through my photos made me realize that I need to take more pictures while skiing. Lets hope for a cold and snowy winter next year!

Tropical Storm Arthur

Earlier this week, I posted about some possible early activity in the tropics this year. Well it looks like that activity has come to fruition, as we officially have our first named tropical storm of the year, Arthur.

Tropical storm Arthur (NHC)

As of now, the storm is well off the coast of Georgia and South Carolina, but as it tracks northward it'll clip the coast of North Carolina at around 8 a.m. Monday morning. Here is the storm cone along with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) messages for the storm.

Key Messages for Arthur (NHC)

The Outer Banks of North Carolina face the biggest risk for the storm before it heads out to sea by Monday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with some higher gusts, and the storm will strengthen over the next day before losing its tropical characteristics on Tuesday. The minimum central pressure is 1002 mb.

What does this mean for us in New England? Well... not much, we may see some strengthened winds due to the low pressure system moving out to sea, along with cloudy skies. Apart from that, weather should remain normal.

Although hurricane season officially lasts from June 1 to November 30, the official Atlantic hurricane database lists 87 tropical or subtropical cyclones that have occurred between December and May, with Arthur being the newest to that list.

Cold April in North America, but warm elsewhere

Happy Saturday, everyone! I hope you find a way to get outside and enjoy today's fantastic, more seasonable weather. I did a nice bike ride with my parents today which was great!

If you thought April felt cold this year, you're not wrong. In fact, in Hartford, CT the mean temperature for the month was 46.1 °F, making it the 8th coldest April out of 69 years of records. And in Burlington the mean temp was 43.4 °F. However, while April was cold here in the Northeast (and lots of North America as well), it was a warm month for the rest of the world.

Land and ocean temperature departure from average for April 2020 (NCEI)

This map, from the NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), shows the land and ocean temperature departure from average for April 2020. Notice the large area of dark red in Russia. That's an area where temps were well above normal. According to NCEI, the world as a whole was 1.91 °F warmer in April than the global normal temperature of 56.7 °F. And Aprils since the turn of the century have certainly tended warmer.

Global April temperature anomalies since 1880 (NCEI)

The above graph shows that Aprils have clearly gotten warmer as of recent. It'll be interesting to see how May turns out this year!

Exciting Weather for Today

Get ready for a fun day weather-wise!

It's a warmer and humid start this morning with temperatures in the 50s in the region. We saw some rain overnight, but things have cleared out for the morning. Here's a look at I-84 in Middlebury, CT this morning.

I-84 view on 5/15

The real action starts late this afternoon, as we track out the chances for some severe storms.

SPC convective outlook (NWS SPC)

The NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) released their outlook for today, and we're under an enhanced risk for severe storms. We'll be looking at the possibility for some damaging winds, large hail, and even tornadoes associated with thunderstorms. Supercells may pop up in very distinct areas, so while some places could see large storms, other areas could remain dry.

There is significant instability in the atmosphere, which is leading to the potential for these storms. Here's a look at the NAM, showing a heavy line of storms in VT at around 8 p.m.

NAM for this evening (Tropical Tidbits)

And probabilistically, here's a look at the chances that we may see a tornado today.

SPC Day 1 Tornado Outlook (NWS)

Today will certainly be a fun weather day later on, but be sure to remain safe. Send in any photos of storm damage if you have them!

Bear Mountain Hike

Today was absolutely spectacular! After a chilly start, we saw sunny skies and temperatures that reached the upper 60s.

To take advantage of the wonderful spring weather, my father and I got up early to hike Bear Mountain, CT's highest mountain summit which is located in Salisbury, at 2,380 feet. Interestingly, the summit of Bear Mountain is not the highest point in the state. That title belongs to Mt. Frissell, which has its peak in Massachusetts.

After the hour-long drive, we arrived at the trailhead at 8:30 a.m., and there were only 3 other cars in the parking lot. With no wind and temperatures around 45, we embarked upward. We were treated to a summit to ourselves, and we saw nobody else on the way up. Here's a summit photo, looking to the east over Twin Lakes, CT.

Bear Mountain summit view

And here's a photo looking south. from just below the summit.

Looking south from Bear Mountain

We completed the 5.7 mile round-trip hike in about 2.5 hours, and only saw others on the way down. This was a spectacular way to take advantage of the nice weather before we see the potential for some severe storms tomorrow. I'll update on that tomorrow!

Early Activity in the Tropics this Year

Although the Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1, there are some signs of some tropical activity near the Bahamas this weekend. This map shows the tropical weather outlook for the next 5 days, and the area in red has a 70% chance of a cyclone formation in the next 5 days.

5 day tropical weather outlook (NWS NHC)

Here's the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) forecast discussion on the potential for a storm:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential 
for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the Bahamas.

1. 1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop late this 
week or early this weekend a couple of hundred miles north of 
the Bahamas. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual 
development of this system, and a subtropical depression or storm 
is likely to form this weekend while it moves northeastward over 
the western Atlantic. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on 
this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Wednesday, or earlier, if 
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

Hurricane forecasters are tracking the potential for a subtropical depression to form near the Bahamas.

We can see the area of low pressure near Florida on the map below, and that's the area to watch.
GFS Model for Saturday evening (Tropical Tidbits)

If this does end up becoming a tropical storm, it will be the first one of the year and it'll be called Arthur.

The Spring Ski Season that Could've Been...

As a skier and a weather enthusiast, I love to talk about the relation between weather and skiing. Of course, due to COVID-19, all ski areas in the country were shut down around March 20th this year, and none in New England have reopened yet. (One mountain in Southern California reopened with social distancing in place and there are signs that mountains in Oregon will be able to reopen within the next week).

As far as spring skiing in New England this year goes, we certainly could've had a fantastic spring. As I've been mentioning for the past few weeks on this blog, temperatures have been unseasonably cold in the East. Couple that with some late-season snowstorms this year, and conditions on the slopes could've been great well into May. Here's a current look at the Killington webcam atop the North Ridge Quad, showing a view that looks like it could be March.

North Ridge Cam on 5/12 (Killington)

Jay Peak, another Vermont resort that tends to spin the lifts into May, also shows wintery looking slopes on their webcam.

Jay Peak webcam (Jay Peak)

The trails are still looking pretty wintery thanks to the light snow that areas that saw snowfall yesterday. Here's a map of who saw some May 11 snowfall.

May 11 snowfall totals (NWS Burlington)

The NWS in Burlington is fairly confident that this will be our last snowfall of the year, given the warmup that is on the horizon.

Since the winter of 1988, Killington has operated their lifts into June ten times, with the most recent one being last year. Based on how the webcam looks now, it looks likely that they would have made it to June for the 11th time this year.

At some point soon, I'll do a winter 2020 skiing recap on the blog.