Tuesday, July 7, 2020

Wednesday Forecast

I haven't done a simple one-day weather forecast in a while, so I figured I'd do one for tomorrow, which looks to potentially have some severe weather.

First, here's a look at the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) day 2 outlook.
SPC day 2 outlook (NWS)
A large swath of New England is in the marginal risk category, meaning we could see some strong to severe storms. The atmosphere is looking pretty unstable tomorrow afternoon with CAPE values > 1000 J/kg, meaning we could certainly see some storms. There is also modest shear in the upper atmosphere, which, coupled with a high CAPE value, can produce strong storms. Any storms that do fire up tomorrow could cause some strong surface wind gusts or hail in spots.

As you can see with the image of the NAM 3 km model below, storms look to be quite isolated, although heavy in spots. This is for 5 p.m. tomorrow
NAM at 5 p.m. EST tomorrow (Tropical Tidbits)
If you do have outdoor activities planned for tomorrow, you should be fine in the morning, although I'd caution against going out in the afternoon. Any storms that do pop up will likely be short-lived.
NAM 2 m temperatures at 5 p.m. EST tomorrow (Tropical Tidbits)
Like today, temperatures will not be unbearable, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Have a nice day, and share any storm info/damage if you have it!

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