Possible Tropical System

First of all, today will feel absolutely oppressive. With high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s and due points in the upper 60s or low 70s, it'll simply feel like the hottest day of the summer. The following two images so forecasted air temperatures and due points from the HRRR model for 2 p.m. today. There is no way to sugarcoat it. Today will feel oppressive.

HRRR 2 p.m. temperatures (Tropical Tidbits)

HRRR 2 p.m. due points (Tropical Tidbits)

If you do have any outdoor activities planned, I recommend you do them in the morning to avoid the brunt of the heat and humidity. And on these days, it's essential to hydrate sufficiently.

Moving ahead to the weekend, there are increasing chances that we could see a tropical system affect us here in New England. Here's a look at where the storm is right now, near the Carolinas.

GOES-East Satellite Imagery (NOAA)

And here's a GIF showing the trend of the system approaching our region from the GFS model.

GFS from 8 a.m. Thursday to 2 p.m. Sunday (Tropical Tidbits)

The low looks to track up the Atlantic coast, reaching Southern New Jersey at around 8 a.m. Friday morning. The GFS has the storm tracking particularly far to the west compared to other models, and if that is the case, we could miss out on the brunt of the rain/wind. Particularly, the European model (EURO) has the storm track a little further to the east, leaving us with some more impressive rainfall totals. Either way, I'd expect us to see rain Friday into Saturday. Here's a look at the total accumulated rainfall from the GFS through Sunday morning.

GFS Accumulated Rainfall through Sunday a.m. (Tropical Tidbits)

That large swath of purple in Central New York is an area that could see over 3 inches of rain. And if the EURO storm track verifies, we could see some of that heavier rain and be in for a soaker this weekend!

Thursday afternoon update: The storm has officially been named Tropical Storm Fay, making this one the 6th named storm of the year.