Hurricane Isaias

Hope everyone has had a fantastic week! Lot's to talk about in weather today, so we'll get right to it.

You've probably heard of hurricane Isaias, which formed overnight. A big topic in the meteorological community has been the pronunciation of Isaias - so I'll clear it up for you. Luckily, having studied in Spain this fall, I don't have too much difficulty with the Spanish pronunciation. It is pronounced: EEE-SAH-EEE-AAHS. Now that we've cleared that up, let's talk about the storm.

Atlantic Tropical Cyclones and Disturbances (NHC)

As of this morning, Isaias is located in the Caribbean near Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic. The maximum sustained winds with the storm are 75 mph, it has a minimum central pressure of 992 mb, and it is moving northwest at 16 mph. 

Here is a look at the forecast cone, which includes us here in New England.

Isaias forecast cone (NHC)

I envision initial winds arriving in southern New England by some point on Tuesday in the morning, before losing its tropical characteristics. 

Isaias tropical storm force wind arrival time (NHC)

New models have brought the storm closer to land, which would weaken it a bit. I think that we'll see significant rainfall totals (which are much needed). My big worry, though, is the winds.

Wind Speeds from GFS (Tropical Tidbits)

Right now, the GFS is showing winds approaching 60 mph here in New England, though the storm track brushes just south of us. We'll certainly see impacts. I think the rip currents will be significant near Cape Cod, Nantucket, and Block Island - those areas will see the brunt of Isaias' impacts.

Here is a spaghetti plot showing different potential storm tracks for Isaias.

Isaias spaghetti plots (Cyclocane)

We can see that some models shift the storm further out to sea, while some bring a direct hit here in New England. I think the brush of the coast scenario seems most likely. However, with each new model run that comes out, the storm track can definitely shift. 

While tropical storms don't quite excite me as much as winter weather does, I'll do my best to keep a close eye on this one and to keep you updated.