Tuesday, December 15, 2020

Looking at past major snowfall events

With excitement for this week's winter storm growing, I wanted to take a look back at past major snowfall events in Connecticut to see where this storm could stack up. Here is what the National Weather Service forecast office in New York is thinking for snow totals for this storm:

(NWS New York)

And here's the forecast map from the National Weather Service in Boston.

(NWS Boston)

As a whole, we seem to be looking at storm totals in the 10-18 inch range, with the bulk of it falling Wednesday night into Thursday. Now how would this storm compare to past storms in CT?

Here are maximum 1-Day total snowfalls for the Hartford area for the month of December:

(NOAA Regional Climate Centers/xmACIS)

I don't think this will be a record setting December storm, but we could be looking at a top-10 December snowstorm, with 1-Day snowfall totals around a foot. And for all months, the following image shows the top 10 1-Day snowfalls for the Hartford area. If this storm takes a slightly northerly track, we could be looking at a top 10 all time storm for the Hartford area.

(NOAA Regional Climate Centers/xmACIS)

If we conduct a similar analysis for Bridgeport, we can see that this storm will certainly be a top 10 December snowstorm, if not a record breaking one.

(NOAA Regional Climate Centers/xmACIS)

Bridgeport tends to see warmer winter weather than Hartford and many of its storms tend to have some mixing involved, often leading to smaller snowfall events there than at Hartford. This storm looks to have Bridgeport right in the center of the storm track, potentially producing record setting one day snowfall in both December (shown above) and for any month (shown below)

(NOAA Regional Climate Centers/xmACIS)

I vividly remember the 2013 event that produced the single greatest one day snowfall at Bridgeport. This early February storm brought 40 inches of snow to Hamden, CT, effectively shutting down the state for a few days. While we certainly won't see a storm like that one this week, it'll be exciting to finally see a true New England winter storm after experiencing a dearth of them over the past few years.

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