Excitement building

I'm excited. I love winter weather, and this will be one of the largest snowstorms we've seen in Connecticut in the past few years. Here is a quick update on what we can expect.

Timing

Start time: Between 5:00 p.m. and 6:00 p.m. today (Wednesday). The NAM (shown below) has the first flakes falling in Connecticut at around 6:00 p.m., while the HRRR is much earlier, with early flakes falling before 5:00 p.m.

(Tropical Tidbits)

Heaviest snow: Between 11:00 p.m. and midnight tonight (Wednesday).  The HREF ensemble mean shows 1-hr snowfall rates exceeding 2.5 inches per hour close to midnight tonight.

(NWS SPC)

Probabilistically, there is roughly a 90% chance that snowfall rates will be greater than 2 inches this evening, based on the higher resolution models. That is a very heavy snowfall rate.

Ending: Between 9:00 a.m. and 11:00 a.m. tomorrow morning (Thursday). Snow will gradually taper off from west to east tomorrow morning, making for a messy a.m. commute. I would be shocked if schools can open for in-person learning tomorrow.

(Tropical Tidbits)

Precipitation type

This storm will basically be an all-snow event, although there may be some mixing, especially in more coastal areas (see the pink in the map below).

(NWS SPC)

If rain or sleet does fall, which may happen in southeastern Connecticut, snow totals there will be limited slightly.

Snow Totals

Here is what the National Weather Service in Boston thinks for storm totals:

(NWS Boston)

Snowfall totals in the 10-20 inch range seem very likely, though some lucky areas may see over 2 feet.

Impacts

With the sheer amount of snow we'll be seeing, travel will be very challenging, especially tomorrow morning.

Wind gusts will exceed 40 mph at times during the storm which could cause power outages, though I don't expect any widespread outages.

Here is a look at the NWS Weather Prediction Center's winter storm severity index (WSSI).

(NWS WPC)

The index, which considers ice accumulation, blowing snow, snow amount, flash freezing, snow load, and ground blizzards, places a good chunk of CT in the "major impacts" category. This category means: "Extensive property damage likely, life saving actions needed. Will likely result in major disruptions to daily life."

Buckle up - this will be an exciting major winter storm. I'll be sure to get outside tomorrow and share photos of what I see in my area.