It's going to snow

Unfortunately I haven't been able to post in a while because I've been quite busy, but there's growing excitement amongst the northeast weather world, as we can expect our first real snowfall this weekend. Yesterday, a few flakes did fall here in Vermont, but they did not amount to any true accumulations at low elevations - the big show comes this weekend.

The National Weather Service in Burlington released its first snowfall map yesterday, and it calls for greater snowfall totals further south.

(NWS Burlington)

I never thought I'd share a hurricane cone map on a post about a snowstorm, but this storm warrants it.

(NWS/NHC)

The remnants of Hurricane Zeta, which will make landfall today, will be felt here in New England this Friday. And with ample cold air in place here in the northeast and the moisture from the south, we have the ingredients to produce some accumulating snowfall. Take a look at the cool air in place on Friday morning, as many areas will see temperatures in the 20s.

NAM 2-m temperatures Friday morning (Tropical Tidbits)

Expect precipitation to begin as rain on Thursday evening, before transitioning to snow on Friday night and continuing into the morning hours. Accumulations will not be significant, but it is always exciting to get the first snow of the year.

Precipitation, rain, and snow hourly forecast graph (NWS Burlington)

How rare is it to see accumulating snowfall? Based on data for Burlington International Airport that date back to 1943, we've had an inch or more of snow fall in October on 5 occasions. The earliest of which was in 1979. So while it's definitely not unprecedented to get a storm like this at this point in the year, this storm is unusual.

Days of first and last snow >= 1 inch at BTV (NOAA Regional Climate Centers/xmACIS)

Enjoy the snow!