Coldest air of the year on the way

Today's snowfall was a bit of an under-performer this far north in Vermont, as the grass remained green this morning. However, snow is falling at a steady rate for much of southern Vermont and southern New England right now, and I'd suspect that some areas will see up to half a foot of snow when all is said and done. Here is a look at radar right now, showing some heavy snow in Massachusetts and western Connecticut.

(RadarScope)

On the heels of this storm, the coldest air of the fall will usher its way into the region, coming south from Canada. High pressure builds tomorrow, which will bring dry and unseasonably cold air.

(NWS)

The October 31st record low temperature for Burlington International Airport (BTV) is 19 °F which happened in 1966, and I think we could flirt with that record tomorrow, as temperatures dip right near 20 °F before sunrise.

NAM 2-m Temperatures (Tropical Tidbits)

After a cold Halloween, we'll have a warming trend for the rest of the weekend, before more cold air ushers its way in for the start of the next work week.

On another note, here's a quick reminder to change your clocks back on Saturday evening! On Sunday, the sun will set at 4:42 pm in Middlebury, VT. 

Quick storm update

Things look on track for the first snowstorm of the year, which is set to begin overnight. Rain will build up this afternoon, and as temperatures cool overnight, we will transition to snow. There is more moisture associated with Zeta further to the south, so areas further south can expect more snow. As a result, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for southern portions of Vermont.

(NWS Burlington)

Accumulations will be meager, with less than an inch here in Middlebury, VT. After this storm moves through, expect a big cooldown for the Halloween weekend as high pressure builds in. Take a look at the NAM's forecast for 2-m temperatures for Saturday morning. Tempeatures will be in the 20s, making it one of the coldest mornings of the year so far!

NAM 3km 2-m temperatures (Tropical Tidbits)

Enjoy the snow!

It's going to snow

Unfortunately I haven't been able to post in a while because I've been quite busy, but there's growing excitement amongst the northeast weather world, as we can expect our first real snowfall this weekend. Yesterday, a few flakes did fall here in Vermont, but they did not amount to any true accumulations at low elevations - the big show comes this weekend.

The National Weather Service in Burlington released its first snowfall map yesterday, and it calls for greater snowfall totals further south.

(NWS Burlington)

I never thought I'd share a hurricane cone map on a post about a snowstorm, but this storm warrants it.

(NWS/NHC)

The remnants of Hurricane Zeta, which will make landfall today, will be felt here in New England this Friday. And with ample cold air in place here in the northeast and the moisture from the south, we have the ingredients to produce some accumulating snowfall. Take a look at the cool air in place on Friday morning, as many areas will see temperatures in the 20s.

NAM 2-m temperatures Friday morning (Tropical Tidbits)

Expect precipitation to begin as rain on Thursday evening, before transitioning to snow on Friday night and continuing into the morning hours. Accumulations will not be significant, but it is always exciting to get the first snow of the year.

Precipitation, rain, and snow hourly forecast graph (NWS Burlington)

How rare is it to see accumulating snowfall? Based on data for Burlington International Airport that date back to 1943, we've had an inch or more of snow fall in October on 5 occasions. The earliest of which was in 1979. So while it's definitely not unprecedented to get a storm like this at this point in the year, this storm is unusual.

Days of first and last snow >= 1 inch at BTV (NOAA Regional Climate Centers/xmACIS)

Enjoy the snow!

It's been warm this month

After today, (and especially tomorrow), you're probably thinking to yourself, it feels so hot for this time in October - and you're right! 

Looking at statistics for Burlington International Airport in South Burlington, VT, the average October 2020 temperature to date is 53.1 °F, when normal for this October to date is 49.7 °F. We're 3.4 °F above normal for this month! That is very warm, and it looks to continue again tomorrow with another unseasonably warm day.

October 2020 temperature graph for BTV (NOAA Regional Climate Centers/xmACIS)

It hasn't been a record setting month so far, but looking at the individual days, we've consistently been warmer than normal, without having any cooler than normal changes.

If you're hoping for a pattern change, you just may get your wish soon.

(NWS/CPC)

The Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 day temperature outlook indicates cooler than normal temperatures are on their way for much of the country, as the above image shows. It'll be interesting to see where we end up compared to average at the end of the month!

In a future post, I hope to look at more long term weather patterns for this upcoming winter and analyze La Niña, which looks to be a lock now.

Wet Week Ahead

This fall has been spectacular here in Vermont, with plenty of cool, crisp days and abundant sunshine. Unfortunately, (and fortunately for lessening drought conditions) that's to change this week as we enter an active stretch of weather. October is generally one of the drier months of the year, and this year we've seen near normal precipitation so far. Last year, though, we had one of our wettest Octobers on record due to a large Halloween storm.

Looking at the weather models, things take a turn towards more unsettled conditions, and we'll have a fairly rainy week.

(NWS)

The above hourly precipitation forecast shows chances for rain from now until Wednesday morning. That does not mean it will continuously rain between now and Wednesday, but it's a good bet that we'll see some precipitation in that time frame.

National forecast chart (NWS/NOAA)

The rain that we'll see today will occur as a result of a slow moving cold front that'll pass through our region. With lots of cloud cover and the cold front moving through, expect temperatures to not rise much past the low 50s. The GFS has rain beginning in the late afternoon hours, and continuing overnight.

Monday GFS (Tropical Tidbits)

Expect a break in the action by Tuesday afternoon.

Tuesday GFS (Tropical Tidbits)

Again on Wednesday, there are more chances for precipitation, though I expect the bulk of the heaviest rain to fall to our north across the Canadian border.

Wednesday GFS (Tropical Tidbits)

Enjoy the week - not every day will be a washout. We will see some rain, but there will be plenty of breaks in the action for you to enjoy any outdoor pursuits.

First taste of winter

Yesterday, a very slow moving cold front passed through the region, dropping temperatures significantly from the warm conditions we saw on Thursday. Interestingly, this front was anafrontal in nature, causing much of yesterday's rain to fall to the rear of the front. As a result, we had our first true taste of winter in Vermont overnight, with snow falling in some areas at elevation.

Daily snowfall map (NWS)

Much of the snow fell in the Northeast Kingdom of eastern Vermont, while parts of New Hampshire saw significant accumulations, particularly at elevation. Eastern areas were able to see more snow because temperatures dropped more as the front passed through. Here's some photos of the snow from ski areas around Vermont:

(Killington)

(John Stafford/Stowe)

(Jay Peak)

Winter is coming!

Warm, windy day today

After a spectacular, crisp fall day yesterday, we see a big warmup for today, along with windy conditions.

Yesterday was absolutely gorgeous here in Addison County. There were no clouds in the sky, and temperatures were seasonable in the 50s. I did a sunrise hike at the Middlebury College Snow Bowl, which was spectacular. An inversion was in place, producing fog in the valleys, while we could watch the sunrise from above.

Expect a similarly sunny day for today, though it'll be significantly warmer and more windy.

Forecast map (NOAA/NWS)

A warm front will move through, causing temperatures to reach the 70s, putting us about 15 °F above normal for this time of the year. Temperatures in the mid 70s in October are certainly not unprecedented, though; the latest in a calendar year that the temperature has ever reached 70 °F is November 20, which happened in 1991.

In addition to the warmer weather today, there is a large pressure gradient in place, which will cause strong winds throughout the day. Currently, a wind advisory is in place for areas along northern Lake Champlain.

NWS Advisories

For Middlebury, VT, expect surface winds around 20 mph, with gusts exceeding 30 mph! 

NWS

Enjoy this day of warm weather!

Very cool air after a warmup this week

Happy Sunday everyone!

It was simply a spectacular day here in Addison County, with temperatures in the 50s and not a cloud in the sky. I took advantage of the beautiful weather by getting in a nice hike at Mt. Horrid.

It was a nice hike and this was my first time ever on Mt. Horrid. The hike is a quick 1.6 mile round trip that follows the Long Trail from the top of Brandon Gap, and the views certainly did not disappoint. I'd say we are just past peak fall foliage here in Vermont (especially at elevation), so I'd imagine the views would have been even more spectacular than they were today just a few weeks ago.

We'll see more typical weather for the start of the work week with cool temperatures and sunny skies, before we see a warm up this week, culminating in an warm day on Thursday.

GFS 2-m temperatures for Thursday (Tropical Tidbits)

On Thursday, look for temperatures in the upper 60s here in Vermont, though it would not shock me if some spots reached 70 °F. It'll be sunny and warm - Thursday is the choice day for any outdoor activities this week. After that, things we'll cool down for the near future.

GFS 2-m temperature anomiolies (Tropical Tidbits)

In the above 2-m temperature anomaly graphic extending out to ten days from now, we see plenty of cold air in place for most of the time (the blues and purples signify cooler air). The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) mostly agrees with the GFS model in its 6-10 day outlook, as it suggests that cooler than normal temperatures will be experienced in the midwest.

6-10 Day Temperature Outlook (CPC)

There may be some additional model biases that the CPC is considering when it predicts warmer than normal temperatures for much of New England, though I'm not sure how the CPC creates its forecasts. I do think we can expect some cooler temperatures by this weekend, though!

Have a great work week!

Weekend forecast

Hello everyone!

Just a quick update to give a forecast for Northern New England for the upcoming weekend.

After a nice, quiet day of weather tomorrow, we'll have a much warmer day on Saturday. Temperatures will approach 70 in spots as a result of southwesterly flow.

GFS 2-m temperature for Saturday (Tropical Tidbits)

As a low pressure system passes just north of the region on Saturday, we can expect some afternoon rain and more unsettled weather.

GFS precip rate for Saturday (Tropical Tidbits)

Notice that there is some snow on the weather map just north of us in Canada. That's a sign that the seasons are shifting! Further south here in New England, we can expect more rain on Saturday, though I don't think it'll be a washout. Sunday turns clear and a bit cooler as an area of high pressure passes to our north, dropping temperatures back down to more seasonable numbers.

GFS precip rate for Sunday (Tropical Tidbits)

That moisture that you see to our south is affiliated with the potent Hurricane Delta, and I think that moisture may creep north, bringing us some rain for the start of the next work week. 

Enjoy the weekend, and if you do have outdoor activities planned, Sunday will be the best time for them!

On a completely different note, I am revamping my radio show Addison County Weather Watchers this Sunday at 5 p.m. eastern time. If you want to hear me talk about all things weather and climate, tune in on Sunday at 5 using this link.

Losing daylight...

Sorry for the lack of blog posts lately. I am in the midst of a busy period at school, with three exams this week. 

The start of this week felt like the first true day in the path to winter - not necessarily because it was cold or we saw frost, but because I really started to notice the sun rising later and the sun setting earlier.

I woke up at about 6:40 a.m. this morning, and the sun still had not risen yet. The sky was beginning to lighten a bit, but it was still rather dark. The sun officially rose at 6:55 a.m. in Middlebury, VT today. And when I finished my track practice at 7 p.m. today, it was already dark, as the sun had set at 6:25 p.m. Once we get into October, the amount of daylight really starts to decrease. By the end of the month, the sun will not rise until 7:28 a.m. And after the clocks shift backwards by 1 hour on November 1st, the sun will set at 4:42 p.m.

While we still have plenty of daylight and nice weather, it is important to take advantage of it - cause it will not last!

VT September Recap

With the first day of October upon us, one of my favorite months of the year has arrived! And with that, let's take a look back at this past month's weather here in Vermont. September is always a nice time in New England, as you get your first taste of those crisp, cool autumn days, while there are still some days that can be comfortably spent at the beach. This September was not much different. For this analysis, I will look at data from Burlington International Airport (BTV) in South Burlington, VT.

Temperatures

As has been the theme for 2020, September was a warmer than normal month. September 2020's average temperature was 62.1 °F, when the mean for September's dating back to 1941 is 60.5 °F. This month's temperature departure from normal was 1.6 °F

September 2020 BTV daily temperatures (NOAA Regional Climate Centers/xmACIS)

The high temperature for the month was 83 °F, which occurred on September 10th, and we dipped to 34 °F on both the 19th and the 21st, for the coldest two days of the month. The above temperature graph nicely displays the roller coaster nature of this month's temperatures at BTV - we started warm, got close to record cold temperatures by mid month, and we ended with temperatures near record high.

Overall, temperatures were somewhat warmer than normal this September, although there was nothing too anomalous.

Precipitation

For almost the entire month until yesterday, we saw no rain.

BTV September 2020 accumulated precipitation (NOAA Regional Climate Centers/xmACIS)

I think the above graph gives a really good sense of just how dry it was for the entire month until Tuesday and yesterday, when the accumulated precipitation for the month sees a near vertical jump. On September 29th, we saw 0.53 inches of rain fall, and yesterday we had 1.51 inches. For the entire month, we had 2.29 inches of rain, which is 1.35 inches less than the September average of 3.64 in.

Summary

There was really not much to talk about for September 2020, as the weather was quite boring. It was slightly warmer than normal, and much drier than normal until we saw some significant rain over the past few days. September is always a fantastic month in Vermont, and I took advantage of the spectacular weather this year by spending lots of time biking, in the woods, and I went apple picking. Just like September, October is a special time in Vermont, and it'll be exciting to see what the weather brings in October this year!