Warm stretch, some moisture next week, and another cool down to start October

After a few days of below normal temperatures throughout New England, we transition back to warmer weather for the start of astronomical fall. This map shows the mean temperature departure from normal for the past week - notice how almost everywhere in the Northeast had mean temperatures greater than 5 °F below average for the last week.

Mean temperature departure from normal (Southeast Regional Climate Perspectives)

Those cool temperatures and early season freezes will abate over the next few days, as seasonable weather looks to close out the week, and warmer than average temperatures make their return for the weekend. Here is a GIF of the GFS 2-m temperature output, showing temperatures climbing to the upper 70s and low 80s over the weekend. 

GFS 2-m temperatures through Sunday (Tropical Tidbits)

As models have trended warmer over the past few days, it definitely would not shock me if some areas saw temperatures in the mid 80s this weekend. As high pressure builds in the region, the dry spell will continue through the end of the weekend at least. During the Monday to Tuesday timeframe, the combination of some tropical moisture and a dipping jet stream may bring some much needed rain to our region.

After that, I see a big cooling trend for the start of October. Here is the GFS temperature departure from normal at 850 mb in the atmosphere, showing much below normal temperatures for much of the east around the October 3rd timeframe.

(Tropical Tidbits)

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) agrees, sharing a high probability of below normal temperatures for most of the east except Maine in its 8-14 day outlook. 

8-14 day temperature outlook (NOAA/CPC)

Enjoy this weekend's warm weather while it lasts, as we'll return to cooler weather by the start of the next month!