Sunday, September 27, 2020

Drought Update

The National Drought Mitigation Center released a new update to its drought monitor, and things do not look so good for lots of New England.

(National Drought Mitigation Center)

Parts of Massachusetts, Maine, Rhode Island, and Connecticut all now have an "Extreme Drought", and drought conditions only seem to be accelerating. All of New England is now "Abnormally Dry" with increasingly sever conditions present as you head east. This drought can be attributed to how dry it has been, and to get a sense of the dryness, take a look at these maps:

Total precipitation percentiles for past 3 months (Southeast Regional Climate Centers)

The above map shows percentiles for total precipitation from June 25th to September 25 this summer. Anywhere you see a "1", it has been the driest Jun 25 - Sep 25 on record. It is very apparent that the furthest east parts of New England have been the most dry.

We can take a look at a similar map for the past mont (Aug 25 - Sep 25) and see that it has been exceptionally dry during the late summer to early fall period.

Total precipitation percentiles for past month (Southeast Regional Climate Centers)

We need rain badly, and it looks like drought conditions are set to subside slightly here in the northeast. Here is a look at the Climate Prediction Center's seasonal drought outlook for the period through December 31st.

Seasonal Drought Outlook (NOAA)

In New England, it looks like most areas will either see drought removal or a persisting, but improving, drought. This is on contrast to much of the southwest, where drought conditions will persist or even worsen in some spots.


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