Frost advisories for tonight

Good morning! Get ready for our coldest night since mid-May, as temperatures will dip into the 20s in some mountainous areas.

NWS Advisories as of 9/14 (NWS)

A freeze warning is in effect for the Northeast Kingdom, while many northern parts in the state are under a frost advisory.

Tonight's temperatures also show a good lesson in model variations - particularly in resolutions of various models. First, the NAM that resolves at 12 km shows the area of blue (temperatures in the 20s) in western New York.

NAM 12 km 2-m temperatures (Tropical Tidbits)

However, when we look at the 3 km resolution NAM that operates at a much higher resolution, we can see that the model truly highlights areas that will see the coldest temperatures tonight, showing smaller patches of blue in western New York and some of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.

NAM 3 km 2-m temperatures (Tropical Tidbits)

If you want to take a look at more mesoscale or localized weather processes, it is best to look at models with higher resolutions. However, if you want longer-term forecasting, lower resolution models will be better to use.