Ski Season 2019-2020

Something that I love about skiing is how weather-dependent it is and how it gets you outside during what would typically be a grim, cold, and dark time. My love of skiing actually sparked my passion for weather because I would always follow the weather when I was younger, awaiting the next snow and better ski conditions.

One of the biggest perks of being a Middlebury College student is the incredible access to skiing close to campus. This season, I did lots of skiing at the Middlebury College Snow Bowl and Sugarbush Resort, with a little bit at Mad River Glenn as well. I had some fantastic ski days this year, but the season was unfortunately cut short due to the pandemic.

Lets take a look at reported seasonal snowfall totals for areas in VT for 2019-2020:

Jay Peak: 264"
Mad River Glenn: 228"
Smugglers' Notch: 227"
Sugarbush: 209"
Killington: 172"
Stratton: 100"

Although I'm not certain, I believe these numbers are pre-mountain closures, so they likely would've been higher with a few more weeks of operation. As tends to be the case, northern areas were favored for snowfall this winter.

Highlights of the winter included the Feb. 7 snowstorm, when areas saw up to two feet of snow. While it was a powder-filled winter, we had the usual January thaw with rain, which wiped out a considerable amount of snow for the second week of January. And of course, the season was cut short due to COVID-19. To wrap up, here are some photos from my season:

January 30, Middlebury Snow Bowl (Van Barth)

January 2, Ski Butternut

February 22, Middlebury Snow Bowl

January 31, Middlebury Snow Bowl

February 21, Mad River Glenn (Notice Mt. Washington in the background)

Looking through my photos made me realize that I need to take more pictures while skiing. Lets hope for a cold and snowy winter next year!

Tropical Storm Arthur

Earlier this week, I posted about some possible early activity in the tropics this year. Well it looks like that activity has come to fruition, as we officially have our first named tropical storm of the year, Arthur.

Tropical storm Arthur (NHC)

As of now, the storm is well off the coast of Georgia and South Carolina, but as it tracks northward it'll clip the coast of North Carolina at around 8 a.m. Monday morning. Here is the storm cone along with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) messages for the storm.

Key Messages for Arthur (NHC)

The Outer Banks of North Carolina face the biggest risk for the storm before it heads out to sea by Monday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with some higher gusts, and the storm will strengthen over the next day before losing its tropical characteristics on Tuesday. The minimum central pressure is 1002 mb.

What does this mean for us in New England? Well... not much, we may see some strengthened winds due to the low pressure system moving out to sea, along with cloudy skies. Apart from that, weather should remain normal.

Although hurricane season officially lasts from June 1 to November 30, the official Atlantic hurricane database lists 87 tropical or subtropical cyclones that have occurred between December and May, with Arthur being the newest to that list.

Cold April in North America, but warm elsewhere

Happy Saturday, everyone! I hope you find a way to get outside and enjoy today's fantastic, more seasonable weather. I did a nice bike ride with my parents today which was great!

If you thought April felt cold this year, you're not wrong. In fact, in Hartford, CT the mean temperature for the month was 46.1 °F, making it the 8th coldest April out of 69 years of records. And in Burlington the mean temp was 43.4 °F. However, while April was cold here in the Northeast (and lots of North America as well), it was a warm month for the rest of the world.

Land and ocean temperature departure from average for April 2020 (NCEI)

This map, from the NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), shows the land and ocean temperature departure from average for April 2020. Notice the large area of dark red in Russia. That's an area where temps were well above normal. According to NCEI, the world as a whole was 1.91 °F warmer in April than the global normal temperature of 56.7 °F. And Aprils since the turn of the century have certainly tended warmer.

Global April temperature anomalies since 1880 (NCEI)

The above graph shows that Aprils have clearly gotten warmer as of recent. It'll be interesting to see how May turns out this year!

Exciting Weather for Today

Get ready for a fun day weather-wise!

It's a warmer and humid start this morning with temperatures in the 50s in the region. We saw some rain overnight, but things have cleared out for the morning. Here's a look at I-84 in Middlebury, CT this morning.

I-84 view on 5/15

The real action starts late this afternoon, as we track out the chances for some severe storms.

SPC convective outlook (NWS SPC)

The NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) released their outlook for today, and we're under an enhanced risk for severe storms. We'll be looking at the possibility for some damaging winds, large hail, and even tornadoes associated with thunderstorms. Supercells may pop up in very distinct areas, so while some places could see large storms, other areas could remain dry.

There is significant instability in the atmosphere, which is leading to the potential for these storms. Here's a look at the NAM, showing a heavy line of storms in VT at around 8 p.m.

NAM for this evening (Tropical Tidbits)

And probabilistically, here's a look at the chances that we may see a tornado today.

SPC Day 1 Tornado Outlook (NWS)

Today will certainly be a fun weather day later on, but be sure to remain safe. Send in any photos of storm damage if you have them!

Bear Mountain Hike

Today was absolutely spectacular! After a chilly start, we saw sunny skies and temperatures that reached the upper 60s.

To take advantage of the wonderful spring weather, my father and I got up early to hike Bear Mountain, CT's highest mountain summit which is located in Salisbury, at 2,380 feet. Interestingly, the summit of Bear Mountain is not the highest point in the state. That title belongs to Mt. Frissell, which has its peak in Massachusetts.

After the hour-long drive, we arrived at the trailhead at 8:30 a.m., and there were only 3 other cars in the parking lot. With no wind and temperatures around 45, we embarked upward. We were treated to a summit to ourselves, and we saw nobody else on the way up. Here's a summit photo, looking to the east over Twin Lakes, CT.

Bear Mountain summit view

And here's a photo looking south. from just below the summit.

Looking south from Bear Mountain

We completed the 5.7 mile round-trip hike in about 2.5 hours, and only saw others on the way down. This was a spectacular way to take advantage of the nice weather before we see the potential for some severe storms tomorrow. I'll update on that tomorrow!

Early Activity in the Tropics this Year

Although the Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1, there are some signs of some tropical activity near the Bahamas this weekend. This map shows the tropical weather outlook for the next 5 days, and the area in red has a 70% chance of a cyclone formation in the next 5 days.

5 day tropical weather outlook (NWS NHC)

Here's the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) forecast discussion on the potential for a storm:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential 
for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the Bahamas.

1. 1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop late this 
week or early this weekend a couple of hundred miles north of 
the Bahamas. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual 
development of this system, and a subtropical depression or storm 
is likely to form this weekend while it moves northeastward over 
the western Atlantic. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on 
this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Wednesday, or earlier, if 
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

Hurricane forecasters are tracking the potential for a subtropical depression to form near the Bahamas.

We can see the area of low pressure near Florida on the map below, and that's the area to watch.
GFS Model for Saturday evening (Tropical Tidbits)

If this does end up becoming a tropical storm, it will be the first one of the year and it'll be called Arthur.

The Spring Ski Season that Could've Been...

As a skier and a weather enthusiast, I love to talk about the relation between weather and skiing. Of course, due to COVID-19, all ski areas in the country were shut down around March 20th this year, and none in New England have reopened yet. (One mountain in Southern California reopened with social distancing in place and there are signs that mountains in Oregon will be able to reopen within the next week).

As far as spring skiing in New England this year goes, we certainly could've had a fantastic spring. As I've been mentioning for the past few weeks on this blog, temperatures have been unseasonably cold in the East. Couple that with some late-season snowstorms this year, and conditions on the slopes could've been great well into May. Here's a current look at the Killington webcam atop the North Ridge Quad, showing a view that looks like it could be March.

North Ridge Cam on 5/12 (Killington)

Jay Peak, another Vermont resort that tends to spin the lifts into May, also shows wintery looking slopes on their webcam.

Jay Peak webcam (Jay Peak)

The trails are still looking pretty wintery thanks to the light snow that areas that saw snowfall yesterday. Here's a map of who saw some May 11 snowfall.

May 11 snowfall totals (NWS Burlington)

The NWS in Burlington is fairly confident that this will be our last snowfall of the year, given the warmup that is on the horizon.

Since the winter of 1988, Killington has operated their lifts into June ten times, with the most recent one being last year. Based on how the webcam looks now, it looks likely that they would have made it to June for the 11th time this year.

At some point soon, I'll do a winter 2020 skiing recap on the blog.