Major Changes to Come

Take a good look at the current snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE) maps for the Northeast.

Snow Depth (NOAA/NOHRSC)

SWE (NOAA/NOHRSC)

By the weekend, these maps won't look very much like they do right now. Why is that? Well, a big change is set to come for our weather, and we can expect our first true spring-like weather later this week.

By Tuesday evening, a ridge will build in our region, causing flow from the south, which will bring warmer temperatures and air from the south. On Tuesday evening, we can see northerly flow on the GFS, but that takes a quick turn to southwest by Wednesday.

Tuesday Evening (Tropical Tidbits)

Wednesday (Tropical Tidbits)

As a result of the changing flow, temperatures will be much above normal by Thursday, and they'll stay that way until the weekend. Here's the GFS 850 mb temperature anomaly map for Thursday. Notice that temperatures at that level of the atmosphere will be much above normal.

(Tropical Tidbits)

What does this mean for what we can expect on the surface? I'd expect temperatures in the low 50s for northern New England and the 60s for the south. After a winter with few true thaws, that will certainly feel nice for those that are ready for spring.

(Tropical Tidbits)

Fortunately, for our snowpack, there doesn't look to be any substantial chances for precipitation associated with this warmer weather. Areas south and in the valleys where SWE and snowpack temperature are lower will certainly lose a significant amount of snow, but I'd imagine the deep snowpack and the cooler snowpack temperature in interior mountain areas will be able to withstand some of these high temperatures.

Enjoy the warm weather!