April Fools Snowstorm

March was a bust of a moth if you live in New England and like snow. Boston only saw 0.1 inches when they'd normally have 7.8 inches, and Burlington only had 1.4 inches, much less than its normal 15.8.

April will look to rewrite that script right off the bat for parts of northern New England and upstate New York, as an April Fools Day snowstorm is forecast. Winter storm warnings and advisories are in effect for much of the Northeast from late Wednesday night into Thursday night.

(Pivotal Weather)

Here's what we should expect:

(Tropical Tidbits)

For the last day of March, southerly flow will cause temperatures to rise into the 60s. That will change after a low pressure system tracks up the Atlantic coast and a fold front moves through, causing temperatures to drop sharply and the wind direction to shift to from the north. See if you can pick out the cold front in this GIF.

(Tropical Tidbits)

Despite temperatures being around 60 °F, diurnal cooling and the cold front will enable temperatures to drop below freezing overnight. Precipitation will begin as rain and then change over to snow overnight on Thursday night, with higher elevation areas and places further west (that'll see the cold front move through earlier on) favored for snowfall.  Here is a NWS snowfall onset map.  Notice how western areas and high elevation areas will be favored for an earlier start-time of the snow.

(NWS Burlington)

The snow will end on Thursday evening with northern areas seeing snowfall stick around latest. Here is what the National Weather Service in Burlington thinks for snowfall totals.

(NWS Burlington)

Based on the models I've examined and the reading I've done, I think some of these number are a tad overdone, and I'd expect that snowfall will be slightly less. The March/April sun angle is quite high, causing the ground to heat up pretty easily. The ground is warm right now, and snow that does fall will have difficulty sticking. Also, temperatures will be in the 60s today, so the atmosphere needs to do some real work to cool down after the cold front moves through to enable snowflake production. For the most part, I'd bump the numbers in the above map down by an inch or two. I do think we'll see flakes, though.

Enjoy the April snow!