Mixed Monday-Tuesday Storm

Our next storm is looking like a mixed-bag, with areas north seeing a solid snowfall and southerly areas seeing some mixing and rain.

Earlier on, the storm was looking more wintery, but the last few GFS runs have brought the low pressure center further north, as shown in this trend GIF below.

GFS (Tropical Tidbits)

The NAM seems to agree, showing an even warmer setup in areas further south. See the whole trajectory of the storm from the most recent NAM run:

NAM (Tropical Tidbits)

That model has the low pressure center tracking even further north, with parts of Northern New England still seeing snow, while the south experiences some mixing and rain. The yellows in the above GIFs indicate some heavy rainfall that is set to hit southern parts the region. With a solid snowpack in place for areas south, I suspect that the warm temperatures and rain will cause some significant snowmelt and even some flooding.

With snow beginning on Monday night and extending through Tuesday, northern areas will look to increase their already deep snowpack. Here is a NAM 10:1 snow-to-liquid ratio map for now through Tuesday at midnight. 

(Tropical Tidbits)

I think that these snowfall totals are a tad overdone for areas south, while northern locations that can expect a more powdery snow can see even more snow than the above map shows. This will add to an already deep snowpack that the Northeast currently has.

(NWS Burlington)

Enjoy the next dose of winter weather!