Thursday, April 15, 2021

Wild Weather to come

Get ready for a wild stretch of weather over the next few days. Given what we'll be seeing, it's crazy to think that last weekend we had three days of temperatures in the 70s and sunny skies. Here's what we're looking at.

Here is the current surface analysis for our region:

(NWS/WPC)

You're reading that right - temperatures are in the 50s in many spots, but we're tracking a snowstorm! The National Weather Service has issued winter storm watches and warnings for many areas at elevations above 1500 feet, as temperatures will drop throughout the day. In valley locations, we're looking at an entirely liquid precipitation event.

(Pivotal Weather)

Here's what radar looks like currently. Rain has begun in western New England, and it will become more widespread throughout the day. To examine the storm track, let's take a look at the GFS:

(Tropical Tidbits)

This one is taking a classic Nor'easter track, moving northeast up the Atlantic Coast, and stalling for a few days near Nantucket. 

For precipitation type, things will be very elevation dependent. Valley locations will likely see all rain, where the mountains of Vermont and New Hampshire could see 1+ feet of snow. Here's what the National Weather Service is thinking, and I think these numbers are reasonable.

(NWS Burlington)

Regardless of precipitation type, there is lots of moisture associated with this system. The National Weather Service's quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) indicates that some areas will be receiving 3+ inches of total precipitation. This will not be a drought-buster given how dry we've been, but it will certainly be helpful. Here's where things stand now.

(NOAA/National Drought Mitigation Center)
Enjoy the storm!

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