Wintery weather in the upcoming week

Things will turn quite wintry here in southern New England for the upcoming work week, with two chances for snow and cold temperatures. 

The first chance for snow that we're watching out for will be on Monday, as low pressure makes its way up the Atlantic coast.

(Pivotal Weather)

The operational GFS model has trended more and more towards some moderate accumulations of snow for Monday, especially near the shoreline. Expect that round of snow to occur in the afternoon to evening hours, with shoreline areas seeing a mix of snow and inland areas seeing greater chances for an all-snow event. Here is what the GFS thinks for Monday, with a 10:1 snow-to-liquid ratio. I do think some of these snow totals will be a bit overblown due to this being a fairly warm winter weather event, but there is moisture that will give some accumulating precipitation.

Total accumulated snowfall though Monday night (Pivotal Weather)

After Monday's event, we'll see a break in the action with cold temperatures and high pressure for Tuesday.

By mid-day Wednesday, another low pressure system will make its way northward, and with this one, there will be abundant cold air in place and sufficient moisture to produce a significant winter storm. This one has the makings for plenty of precipitation, as you have the cold air form the high to our north, as well as the moisture from the low to off the coast of New Jersey.

(Pivotal Weather)

There was plenty of hype about this storm earlier this week because ensembles and operational models were in agreement pretty early on. I did not buy in so early, but now confidence is increasing that we may see more than 6 inches of snow.

Just for fun, here is a map showing the GFS total snow accumulations from now through next Thursday morning. I'll take the under on this one, but we should expect some accumulating snow in the upcoming week.

Total accumulated snowfall through Thursday morning (Pivotal Weather)

Alleviation of the Drought

The latest drought monitor has been released by the National Drought Mitigation Center, and it looks like we have finally begun to alleviate the drought that has plagued New England for much of the summer and fall.

Current northeast drought monitor (National Drought Mitigation Center)

After the frequent heavy rains that we have seen this fall (and especially last weekend), much of western New England has finally achieved abnormally dry conditions or gotten to the "None" category on the drought monitor. The only parts of New England that are still experiencing a moderate drought are in Northern New England, and one small portion of far southeast New Hampshire is still in a severe drought.

If we compare the above map to what we were seeing just about two months ago, we can see how much the drought conditions have changed in such a short time.

Northeast drought monitor for October 6 (National Drought Mitigation Center)

On October 6, many areas were experiencing an "Extreme Drought" and now much of New England does not even have drought conditions. And fortunately for those areas that are still unusually dry, the Centers for Climate Prediction (CPC) 6-10 and 8-14 day precipitation outlooks (shown below) show a continued wet trend over the next two weeks. I would suspect that in a few weeks the Northeast drought monitor will show even less color than it does now.

6-10 day precipitation outlook (NOAA/CPC)

8-14 day precipitation outlook (NOAA/CPC)

While the lessening of the drought has been successful here in New England, the same can not be said of much of the country.

Current U.S. drought monitor (National Drought Mitigation Center)

Currently, much of the Southwest is experiencing an Exceptional Drought, as has been the case for much of the fall. And unfortunately, as the above precipitation outlooks show, while the Pacific Northwest will be wet over the next two weeks, areas in the Southwest that need water most will see continued aridity.

BTV November 2020 Recap

I've been late to get to this post due to the storm over the weekend (which underperformed in spots but was spot on in other areas - especially east), so here's my look at the weather for November 2020 at Burlington International Airport (BTV).

Temperatures

As has been the case for the year as a whole, temperatures were much above normal this month. The mean monthly temperature at BTV was 43.3 °F, when normal is 38.2 °F, giving a departure from normal of 5.1 °F. That is a huge contrast from November 2020, when the mean monthly temperature was 33.0 °F. That is astounding! This month as a whole averaged 10 °F warmer than the same month last year!

BTV November 2020 temperature graph (NOAA Regional Climate Centers/xmACIS)

The high average temperature this November at BTV was largely due to the stretch of 8 days when the high temperature was greater than or equal to 60 °F (see the temperature graph above). Though we did have multiple days in the 70s, we fell shy of setting a November temperature record, as the record is 75 °F, set in both 1950 and 1948.

The low for the month was 18 °F, reached on both the 18th and 19th. Overall, November 2020 came in as the 3rd warmest month on record at BTV.

Precipitation

We saw 2.08 inches of precipitation this November, when the normal value is 3.13 in., giving a depature from normal of -1.05 inches.

BTV November 2020 precipitation graph (NOAA Regional Climate Centers/xmACIS)

As the above precipitation graph shows, the beginning of the month started very dry, with some marginal increases in rain as the month progressed. Like in CT this November, the total monthly precipitation was bolstered by the heavy rain on the last day of the month, when we saw 0.67 inches of rain. 

As the image below shows, this November ranked in the 32nd percentile for wettest years on record, so it was a fairly normal year, though on the drier side.

(Southeast Regional Climate Centers)

Snow

As for snow, we saw 2.7 inches this month, when normal is 5.1 inches. That doesn't have any real implications for what this winter's snowfall will look like, though it's always exciting to get the first snow of the year.

Looking at the Mount Mansfield snow stake, we are well below normal for snow depth at the state's highest peak right now.

Mount Mansfield Snow Depth (SkiVt-L/UVM)

That has been difficult for VT ski areas that typically look to open in November, but things should look to change - climatologically, we'll get colder and see more snow as we progress into December.

Storm Update

Good morning! Things are on track for a heavy storm throughout New England today, that will bring widespread rain for most and some abundant snowfall for some. 

Here is a current look at radar from the National Weather Service (NWS). Notice the heavy band of precipitation that extends from southwest CT to northwest Massachusetts.

Right now we're looking at all rain in southern New England, but that changeover will happen soon, as temperatures drop.

This storm will be extremely elevation dependent, with some hill towns in Connecticut seeing up to a foot of snow, while valley locations and locations near the shoreline that will see a later changeover to snow may see little to now snow. This will be a heavy, wet snow, and conditions will be windy, so expect some possible power outages. Here is what the NWS Northeast Region is thinking for total snow:

Notice the abundance of snow east of the Connecticut river, while areas west will not see nearly as much. This will be an exciting storm!

Tricky forecast for the weekend

If you have not yet heard, a potent storm is set to make its way to the northeast this weekend, with the bulk of the storm coming on Saturday. This storm will include a mix of rain and snow, and there is still lots of uncertainty with the forecast.

The GFS predicts an area of low pressure to track off the coast of New England on Saturday afternoon, and it will be just east of Cape Cod by Saturday evening.

GFS (Tropical Tidbits)

The NAM has different thoughts, with the low being further out to sea, which would mean less precipitation for us.

NAM (Tropical Tidbits)

The European Model as well is having things trend further out to sea, after initially being more bullish on a large scale storm for interior New England. Only two days out from the storm, there is still lots of uncertainty due to discrepancies in the models.

It'll be interesting to see where things stand after new model runs come through overnight. We're looking at two possibilities:

1. The storm moves out to sea, bringing some rain and a bit of snow.

2. We see a classic New England snowstorm, with significant accumulations.

The NWS Eastern region has released a forecast map showing the brunt of snow to fall in interior Maine. We'll have to wait and see...

Meteorological winter began on Tuesday December 1st, and it appears the season's first nor'easter will move along the New England coast this weekend. pic.twitter.com/qH5nBn5vdD

— NWS Eastern Region (@NWSEastern) December 4, 2020

 

BTV November 2020 Recap

With the start of December and meteorological winter, it's time to take a look back at November and examine the weather that we saw in Vermont at Burlington International Airport (BTV).

Temperatures

It was an extremely warm month at BTV, with the mean temperature being 43.3 °F when normal is 38.2 °F, giving a departure from normal of 5.1 °F. Even more interestingly, the average maximum temperature for November was 51.8 °F, when normal is 45.5 °F, for a departure from normal of 6.3 °F! That's a sure sign of a warm month. November 2019 was much colder than 2020, as the average maximum temperature was 40.0 °F.

November 2020 BTV Temperature Graph (NOAA Regional Climate Centers/xmACIS)

The high average maximum temperature was largely caused by the stretch of impressive November warmth that we saw from November 5th to November 12th, when temperatures were greater than or equal to 60 °F each day, and greater than 70 °F on four of those days. Note that a more typical November high temperature is in the mid to upper 40s. The temperatures that we saw this month ranged from 72 °F on December 8 and 10 to 18 °F on December 18 and 19. 

Overall, November was a very warm month at BTV, largely due to the stretch of unusual heat during the beginning of the month.

Precipitation

November often brings its first true precipitation to BTV, and this year followed that trend early on. On November 2nd, we saw 1.1 inches of snow, giving us our first measurable snow for the year. And on the 25th we had an additional 1.3 inches of snow.  We've had a total of 2.7 inches of snow so far this year, and in a typical year, we would have had 5.4 inches.

Although not extremely so, November was another drier than normal month at BTV. We had a total of 2.08 inches of rain, when normal is 3.13, giving us a departure from normal of -1.05 inches. Interestingly, we saw 0.67 inches of rain on Monday, November 30th, which bolstered rainfall totals for the month, giving us a closer-to-normal total precipitation than we would have had.

November 2020 BTV Precipitation Graph (NOAA Regional Climate Centers/xmACIS)

As the above precipitation graph shows, during the beginning of the month when we had that prolonged stretch of warmer than normal conditions, we saw very little precipitation, causing us to play catch-up for the rest of the month.

Overall, it was a warm month at BTV - after a warm start to December yesterday, it'll be interesting to see if that warm trend continues for the rest of 2020.

Storm Recap

Wow! That was an impressive storm that impacted us here in New England yesterday. Here's my recap on it.

Precipitation

Yesterday we officially saw 1.88 inches of rain at Bradley International Airport (BDL), bringing the November rainfall total at the airport to 5.28 inches. This was much needed, as we needed a drought busting storm like this one.

Winds

The highest wind gust at BDL was 47 mph, while in Bridgeport, CT, winds gusted to 54 mph. And further north, Whiteface Mountain in New York had a 93 mph wind gust, while Mt. Mansfield gusted to 110 mph and the summit of Mt. Washington had a 115 mph gust!

Peak Wind Gusts (NWS Burlington)

Temperatures

The maximum recorded temperature at BDL was 67 °F, recorded at 9:31 PM yesterday, almost reaching the record of 69 °F set back in 1933. That is exceptionally warm for November 30, as the normal high temperature is 46 °F.

At BDR, we set a record maximum temperature of 65 °F yesterday, surpassing the previous record of 63 °F set in 2001.

As of this morning, temperatures remain quite warm here in New England, at similar levels to those being seen in Florida right now.

Current Temperatures (Weather Central)

Impacts

Many in Connecticut lost power yesterday (including me), with up to 17,000 customers being without power at times. Fortunately, most have been restored as of this morning.

With the gusty winds, I saw photos of a tractor trailer that toppled over yesterday in southeast CT. There was lots of traffic throughout the state yesterday.

That was quite a storm, and I'd imagine that it'll put a good dent in the drought, which still persists in parts of eastern New England.

(National Drought Mitigation Center)